“How can I avoid becoming cynical about aid work?”
Saving the World, Startup Style
What’s a Christian development economist good for anyway?
The Economics of Syrian Refugees
Washington’s Wave of Anti-Refugee Hysteria is Missing Something: Facts
Last year I paid my graduate school bills researching refugee resettlement in the United States. Back then, when I told people my research topic they usually responded, “Oh, interesting!” And refrained from asking any follow up questions. That’s all different now. Blog posts I’ve written months ago on the topic of refugee resettlement without much fan-fair are now top hits day after day. That being the case, I thought I’d summarize and list my thoughts on the topic, now that everyone seems to be listening:
For those who would like to make your voice heard to your state government representative about this issue, here is a list of phone numbers to call your Governor’s office.
A couple days ago The New York Times ran a short story about Syrian refugees being resettled in the United States. Here’s an excerpt:
Since the Syrian conflict began four years ago, just 1,854 Syrian refugees have been admitted to the United States.
The refugees who have arrived from Syria since 2012 have been placed in 130 towns and cities. They are among the most vulnerable people in the war: single mothers and their children; religious minorities; victims of violence or torture.
Some of them have reached large cities like Houston, but most have been sent to more affordable, medium-size cities by the nine voluntary agenciesthat handle refugee resettlement. Boise, Idaho, has accepted more refugees than San Francisco and Los Angeles combined; Worcester, Mass., has taken in more than Boston.
Here’s a fancy map that shows where in the United States these Syrian refugees have been placed between 2012 and 2015. The map backs up the previous excerpt, Syrian refugees ARE being settled all across the United States, but that is not the whole story.
If you follow refugee resettlement at all, you’ll be aware of the phenomenon called ‘secondary migration’. This term describes the situation when a refugee moves to a different city (and often to a different state) shortly after being settled in the United States. Why would a refugee, who has just escaped a life threatening situation, move away from an initial placement location where they receive free services helping them find work and housing? Well, for many reasons, but some forthcoming research of mine suggests that the number one reason is to move closer to social networks of family or kin.
So when the following map is coupled with a conclusion that Syrian refugees are going to be living scattered all across the United States, a subtle yet important point is missed. Refugees will move and they will move to areas were other people with Syrian ancestry live.
So where are Syrian refugees who have been resettled in the United States going to move to?
Well, don’t expect this map designed by The New York Times to tell you anything very easily. This map simply displays the information in the wrong way. This map shows the number of people of Syrian ancestry per 1000 people. Sure this may show us proportional Syrian population densities across the United States but it doesn’t tell us anything about where incoming Syrian refugees might move to. When people want to move to live closer to family and kin they simply find where most of their family and kin live.
So while their are a lot of dark blue counties in Iowa, Nebraska, Utah, and even Alaska; I can almost assure you this is not where the majority of Syrian secondary migrant refugees are going to be moving to. Rather I’d be willing to wager that the cities where there are already lots of people of Syrian ancestry living is where these folks are going to move to. These cities also happen to be where a lot of people in general live – the big cities on the coasts and Chicago.
So while Syrian refugees are being resettled across the United States in over 130 cities and towns (and we should do our best to welcome and ease their transition as best as possible). My research suggests that it is the 4 or 5 biggest cities in the United States that need to be prepared for Syrian refugees ultimately inhabiting their area.
This is one of those blog posts that get me into trouble. It’s one of those posts that (probably) blend in with all the other junk that is out there on the web about opinions and politics and on and on and on. I probably shouldn’t add to the noise, but I’m writing a MS thesis and applying for PhD programs and getting married in 8 months, so… oops.
So here’s the gun debate in a nutshell:
One side says gun violence is driven by gun ownership. Proponents of this side point to countries (like those in Europe) with low rates of gun ownership and low gun violence as an example in their favor.
The other side says gun violence is driven by all sorts of other things. Proponents of this side point to countries (like Canada) with high rates of gun ownership and low gun violence as an example in their favor.
Here’s the thing: both sides are right AND wrong… at the same time. In reality (and this almost becomes immediately obvious) gun violence is driven by both gun ownership (a.k.a. all the guns in circulation) AND all sorts of other things.
Here’s a quick tangent on the two different ways things can relate to each other in the real world:
The first way is called an additive relationship. This sort of relationship characterizes questions such as: How much of professional success is driven by nature and how much is driven by nurture? In this case the two components of interest simply add together to determine the outcome of interest. Nature could be zero or nurture could be zero. It doesn’t matter, though, because the inputs are simply added together to produce the output.
The second way is called a chain relationship. This sort of relationship characterizes questions like our present question: How much of gun violence is driven by gun ownership and how much is driven by “other stuff”? In this case the additive approach doesn’t work well. The reason being, to have gun violence you need BOTH a gun and a person willing to pull the trigger with the gun pointing in the direction of human being. If either is taken away, gun violence disappears. In this application if EITHER gun ownership or “other stuff” is zero then gun violence is also zero. Adding the inputs together doesn’t lead to any output. There will just be either a pile of guns with nobody to shoot them with violent intent at other people OR a bunch of people who want to shoot someone with no guns in which to do so.
So, it conceptually doesn’t matter what side of the debate wins. What matters is we (as a nation) need to pick one. We either need to reduce the number of guns in circulation or reduce the amount of “other stuff” that contributes to gun violence.
But here’s the kicker, we don’t know what the “other stuff” is. It’s not clear what makes the United States different from Canada. So for my money I’d say we focus on the thing we actually know how to do.
Yesterday I presented the plan for my thesis research in my department’s weekly Brown Bag Seminar. I had two objectives for the presentation: the first was to introduce this idea of ‘the economics of hope’ and second to receive feedback on a potential thesis research project. I received a lot of good comments and feedback on how to improve the design of my potential research project.
Here are the presentation slides
If you have any comments or questions, please email me at bloem [dot] jeff [at] gmail [dot] com. Thanks!
I’ve written about this topic several times on this blog already see here here and here.
Over the summer (due to the extra time caused by the brake from classes) I was able to get some unassigned reading in. One of the books I read was Richard Thaler’s newest book ‘Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics‘. While reading it I came across the opportunity to submit a book review in the Faith & Economics journal which is a peer-reviewed academic publication of The Association of Christian Economists.
I’m happy to say my review was accepted and is now forthcoming; to be published in either the fall 2015 issue or the spring 2016 issue. The decision (not up to me) has yet to be made. The final published edition will be posted on this site when the time comes, but in the meantime here’s a draft of the submitted review:
Book Review Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics by Richard Thaler
In short, I thought Thaler’s take on the making of behavioral economics was both entertaining and interesting. The book is quite accessible to non-economists and would be quite the informative read for almost anyone interested in human motives, business management, and/or public policy.
The Flaw in Fair Trade The best explanation, to date, on why fair trade (coffee) doesn’t work as a development tool.
The Paternalism of Behavioral Economics Another response to that crazy critique.
Can You Help Someone Become Financially Capable? Yes, well, maybe.
Is there a Free-Market Economists in the House? Survey evidence that shows very few professional economists (specifically 8% of AEA members) are free-market-tiers.
Trying to Explain Bayes’ Theorem to an Islamophobic Congressman (Cation: wonkish)
Two nice explanations of the “Worm Wars” replication debacle (Blattman) & (CDG)
The Scoop on Fertilizer Subsidies in Africa – by my professor Nicky Mason
George Orwell was wrong, less money means MORE stress and more on the behavioral economics of poverty
Why “We’re not doing academic research” isn’t an excuse for bad M&E of development programs
Africa: Why Economists Get it Wrong and why there is no “bottom billion”
Should we behave like economists say we do?
Who wins from the empirical shift in economics? (Hint: it is not free market, Econ 101 theorists)